Friday, September 11, 2009

CFB Top 25 After week 1 (16-25)

6-15

16. TCU Horned Frogs: TCU could easily step in as a legitimate contender in any of the BCS conferences. Their offense is going to be balanced, with a veteran quarterback and talent on the outside. They need to find a premier back but managed a decent rushing attack with a committee approach last season. Their defense is not just the best in the Mountain West, but it could be one of the best in the country. They have a big time pass rusher in Jerry Hughes to lead their defense, and it will again be the power on this team. They have been one of best of the BCS busters in recent years and want to take the next step. With that in mind, they have set themselves up with a tough schedule. If they can run through a schedule that includes Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, BYU, and Utah, they will be playing football in a January bowl. That said, don't expect them to make that run. They will be a 1 or 2 loss team at the end of year.

17. Utah Utes: The Utes were one of the best teams in the country last year. Good enough that after their convincing bowl win over Alabama, there were whispers about realigning the BCS to include a birth for their conference. Then they lost several players to the draft, at least 2 of which be everyday players for NFL teams. They didn't look as good as one would hope in their first game, but they did win convincingly. They do have a strong defense and a lead running back, but their success this season will hinge on the improvement of Terrance Cain. San Jose State will bring a solid defense, and if they can get a full 4 quarters out of Cain, it will be a good sign with Oregon and Louisville next on the slate.

18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Notre Dame has been loading up on recruiting the past few years and it is starting to show. The offense has really shown flashes of explosion in the passing game with Armando Allen leading the rushing attack. They are pass heavy, but Allen is a home run threat that defense have to respect. They play an aggressive defense and have the athletes to play it. They shut down a very good Nevada offense in week one and will attack all year long. If they can avoid giving the big plays that their attacking style leaves open, Notre Dame will be back in the kind of bowl game they used to be accustomed to. Recognizing that they will show vast improvement this year, does not mean that they will be anywhere near the title chase. Their remaining calendar includes Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, an improving Washington team, USC, Boston College, and UConn. I expect them to win 4 of those, setting them up for a 9 win season.

19. North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina's vaunted passing attack lost 2 receivers to the NFL draft. It really showed in the first week as T.J. Yates completed less than half of his passes against the Citadel after the receivers had 6 drops. They did display a strong rushing attack and their defense is back with their defensive backfield showing some flashes that will they will be happy to have later in the year. If they can find a go-to receiver, the Tar Heels will continue their rise up the ranks in College Football.

20. Miami Hurricanes: Miami's defense was exposed a bit against Florida State, but there is no denying the speed and talent that they put on the field. They are a young team, and you can expect those young players to cut down on the mistakes as the season goes on. That, combined with the return of their starting DE's will mean a difference defense by the end of the season. The offense is pass-heavy and lies heavy on Jacory Harris' right shoulder getting the ball deep to a flock of burners. If they can't keep him on his feet, this season will be a disappointment. If they can, the ACC is theirs to win after winning their biggest rivalry game of the year. 10 wins season for the Canes?

21. Florida State Seminoles: Florida State suffered a disappointing loss to start the year, but there is little separation between them and the rival Canes. Florida State's offense moved and scored at will as Jimbo Fisher's offense really starts to take hold and show results. They have a talented offense led by the passing and running of Christian Ponder behind a young, talented Offensive Line. Their front 7 on defense was fast and strong behind Dekoda Watson, and their found their #2 corner in Greg Reid who caught and caused and interception as well as showing great athleticism in the return game. The 2 major issues that the the Miami game left to answer are the play of their young safeties and the bricks that Jarmon Fortson has taped to his hands. Expect the young safeties to cut down on their mistakes as the season goes protecting the Nole defense from the deep balls that Miami victimized them with. I don't know how they are going to teach Fortson to catch the ball. They will likely have to make more use of their tight ends in the red zone. That said, looking at their schedule, they should win 9 games. They are getting back to the FSU of old, but the gators are still going to be a problem at the end of year.

22. Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia is talented, and well coached, but they may not have the premier athletes that they have brought to bare in the past. Cox will be a solid college QB and A.J. Green is a nice outside threat, but they need someone to step up and lead the offense. Those 2 are the most likely and if both would be the best answer. It will be interesting to see how losing Sturdivant for the season again will affect the offense. Their defense was solid against OSU and should be so the rest of the year, but they have to recover from the disappointment of losing their first game quickly. This may only end up being a 7 win season for the Dawgs if something doesn't change in a hurry.

23. Cincinnati BearCats: Cincinnati went to New Jersey and pummeled the Scarlet Knights. There were questions about how they would replace the leaders that they lost from last year, 12 players making NFL rosters. Expect that first game to be indicative of what you are going to see from them this year. Their offense was expected to be explosive with Senior Tony Pike orchestrating it and if their defense is any semblance of what they showed against Rutgers, they will win the Big East again. They should win 9 games with a solid chance at 1 or 2 more.

24. Kansas Jayhawks:
Kansas is going to score a lot of points. They have the perfect quarterback for their version of the Spread in Todd Reesing, a premier Wide Receiver on the outside in Dezmon Briscoe, and a surprisingly fast little running back in Jake Sharpe. They have been winning shootouts for the last 2 years, and can definitely continue to do that what they have in the cupboard. Their defense has not been tested yet, so this week's game against the UTEP's gun slinging offense this week will be interesting as a test. KU will have a lot of time to get ready for the murderer's row they have at the end of the year with Nebraska, Texas, and Missouri to end up. They will be in the hunt for the Big 12 north title, but Missouri and Nebraska will have something to say about it.

25. Missouri Tigers: The Tigers have to replace a bevy of NFL talent on offense, and if their first game against Illinois is any indication, they did just fine. The Mizzou offense with Blaine Gabbert looks much different than prior versions, but no less explosive. Danario Alexander looked great in his first game back from injury. He is not Jeremy Maclin, but he is an excellent receiver who provides difficulties for opposing defense in his own right. The defense also lost a handful of players in the early rounds, but you wouldn't have known it watching them against the Illini. They were aided by the injury to Arrelious Benn which hampered the Illinois passing attack. That said, Illinois is a running team, and Missouri shut them down. It was a real test and Missoui passed at the top of the class. Expect this Missouri team to be in the 10 win range and in the thick of the fight in the Big 12 North. Back to back games against Oklahoma State and Texas in October will likely be the difference in another solid season and a great season. Winning one of those would be great, winning both would shake the power balance for the league, and maybe the country.

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