Tuesday, March 9, 2010

College Football Alignment Followup

Last fall I put together a suggestion for a college football realignment, designed to solve a number of issues with the current college football landscape and bowl system.  This is the followup, showing the projected changes and effects of that suggestion.

Per that suggestion, the teams that would have been included in the suggested 8 team playoff were as follows, by Region.

        
North East Region: Penn State Nittany Lions
South East Region: Florida Gators
Pacific Region: Boise State Broncos
Mountain Region: Brigham Young Cougars
South Central Region: Texas Long Horns
Eastern Region: Alabama Crimson Tide
Central Region: Nebraska Corn Huskers
Great Lakes Region: Ohio State Buckeyes

Looking at this list, I saw that a lot of quality teams were not going to get a chance at the National Title.  This led me to consider expanding the field to include the top 4 from each region and having a tournament that included all of the bowl games.  This would be half the size of the Men's basketball tourney, but it would account for all of the games and the proposed payment system could be adjusted.

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Here are the seeds that were garnered by record for that tourney, listed by first round game.

1. Florida Gators
32. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
A battle of offensive masterminds and Blue Chip QB's.  It would be interesting to see how Clausen and Tate could fair against the vaunted Gator D.  Who am I kidding, Clausen would be lucky to survive against that D-Line with the crappy protection offered by the Irish line.

8. Brigham Young Cougars
25. Stanford Cardinal
It seems like these 2 are battling for QB prospects every year.  Watching them play would be like watching a scrimmage.  Intelligent passing games balanced with a big back rushing attack and solid, but unspectacular defenses.  This would be a tight, tight game.

9. Texas Christian Horned Frogs
24. Arizona Wildcats
This would have been much more intriguing with both Gronkowski's on the field.  After seeing what the Husker's D did to the WildCats, it is pretty clear how they would fair against the Horned Frogs.  Jerry Hughes would have been shooting for a career game.

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers
17. Georgia Tech YellowJackets
The best option attack in the country against Suh and his buddies.  Strength against Strength is what football used to be about.  The purists would love love loooooove this one.

13. Virginia Tech Hokies
20. North Carolina Tar Heels
Big time game as the 2 and 3 from the Eastern Region bump heads again.  These were 2 of the most talented Defenses in the country.  This would be one of the best hitting games of the year.

12. Penn State Nittany Lions
21. Wisconsin
Old School Big Ten game.  The Lions would be favored, but if the Badgers were able to get healthy, they could give them a big time run for their money.

5. Boise State Broncos
28. Mississippi Rebels
The Broncos always want their shot at the teams from the big conferences.  This is the kind of game that would give them the chance to prove that they deserve it.  Ole Miss is trying to be an up and coming, and Broncos would be doing their damndest to choke the life out of them.

4. Cinncinatti Bearcats
29. Boston College
I don't know what to say here.  If this is Cincy with Bryan Kelly, I think they blow BC out.  If this is Cincy without him, the BC toughness grinds them down.

3. Texas Longhorns
30. Kentucky Wildcats
A game with 2 wide open passing attacks.  The Cats D would be the question.  Texas would win, but the Cats might just show that they are a little better than advertised.

6. Pittsburgh Panthers
27. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Both of these teams are known for recruiting but now showing it on the field.  With Dez Bryant, OSU is probably the favorite, but can they score on Pitt without him?

11. Ohio State Buckeyes
22. Houston Cougars
Big 10 D against C-USA spread.  You know what, screw that, this is the Run-n-Shoot v. 2.  I am not sure the Bucks have enough D-Backs to stop the cougars, but I know the cougars don't have the horses up front to slow down either of the Buckeye lines.

14. Miami Hurricanes
19. Oregon State Beavers
Young, improving team.  Quizz against the Canes.....yeah, I am watching this one.

15. Texas Tech Red Raiders
18. West Virgina Mountaineers
The best passing spread attack against the best running spread attack.  Defense be damned.....yeah....watching this one too.

10. Oregon Ducks
23. Missouri Tigers
Estimating 72 points for the over/under.  Both of these spread attacks are balanced and the defenses can play too.  Oregon has more vets and their backs are a bit better, but Missouri is closer than people think and Gary Pinkel can coach.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes
26. Clemson Tigers
Can the Hawkeyes run with the Tigers.  Spiller and Jacoby can run like very few in the country, while the Hawkeyes have a great O-Line and run down hill.......This would be a fun one.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide
31. Utah Utes
Heh, think Bama might be up for this one after last year?  Oh, just maybe.

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As you can see, there are a number of interesting story lines and I am hard pressed to say that there are any teams that would be able to complain that they had not had a fair chance to make it.  The seedings are from the regular season, so questions about how the bowls results may have affected couldn't be taken into account, but still the seedings overall were pretty accurate....well with exception of the holy mess that the BearCats coaching staff and Athletic Department made of december.

After the season, I did a review of the records of the teams overall, against their region, and against Upper Division Teams.  Using those records, the European-style promotion/demotion system would result in the following regional alignments.  The Green Teams moved into the Upper and the Red moved out.

REGION: NORTH EAST
Major Division
1. Penn State
2. West Virginia
3. Pittsburgh
4. Boston College
5. Buffalo
6. Rutgers
7. Temple

Minor Division
1. Connecticut
2. Virginia
3. Syracuse
4. Akron
5. Navy
6. Maryland
7. Kent State
8. Army

Notes: This region's promotions are a perfect example of what this system gives you.  Rutgers and UConn are going to fight every year to stay in the Upper group, while teams like Temple will peek periodically and jump for a year or two.  This will help their recruting much more. 

REGION: SOUTH EAST
Major Division
1. Florida
2. Southern Mississippi
3. Miami
4. Georgia
5. Georgia Tech
6. Clemson
7. South Florida

Minor Division
1. Troy
2. South Carolina
3. Central Florida
4. Florida State
5. Auburn
6. Florida Atlantic
7. Tulane
8. Florida International

Notes: This Region is loaded and few would argue that FSU and Auburn are better than Southern Miss.  All we have to work on is the numbers from their schedules though, and neither of them played particularly well against the region.  Of course, they were not playing the same teams as Southern Miss  either. 


REGION: PACIFIC
Major Division
1. Boise State
2. Oregon
3. Nevada
4. Oregon State
5. Stanford
6. Southern California
7. California
 
Minor Division
1. Fresno State
2. UCLA
3. Idaho
4. Washington
5. Hawai'i
6. San Jose State
7. San Diego State
8. Washington State
 
Notes: This is a region full of fringe teams.  Outside of the bottom 3, it has good strength from top to bottom and because of that, there will be a lot of movement. 
 
REGION: MOUNTAIN
Major Division
1. Brigham Young
2. Texas Tech
3. UTEP
4. Utah
5. Air Force
6. New Mexico State
7. Arizona
 
Minor division
1. Wyoming
2. Colorado
3. Arizona State
4. UNLV
5. New Mexico
6. Colorado State
7. Utah State
 
Notes: This is a really week region, so bad teams like New Mexico State would get a shot periodically.  Of course, with them having a better shot at the big games, they will become better teams. 
 
REGION: SOUTH CENTRAL
Major Division
1. Texas
2. Houston
3. Oklahoma
4. Southern Methodist
5. Louisiana Lafayette
6. Oklahoma State
7. Texas Christian
 
Minor Division
1. Tulsa
2. Louisiana Monroe
3. Texas A&M
4. Lousiana State
5. Baylor
6. Louisiana Tech
7. Rice
8. North Texas
 
Notes: LSU was screwed by their strength of schedule.  They had a bit of a down year in the SEC while Lafayette played the cupcakes of the region.  That said, this region has enough good teams, that a solid team will be demoted most every year.
 
REGION: EASTERN
Major Division
1. Alabama
2. Wake Forest
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Tennessee
6. North Carolina State
7. Duke
 
Minor Division
1. Kentucky
2. Ohio
3. East Carolina
4. Louisville
5. Vanderbilt
6. Marshall
7. UAB
8. Middle Tennessee State
 
Notes: Duke is improved, but not this improved.  That said though, this is the point.  Give the lower edge teams hope and something to play for. 
 
REGION: CENTRAL
Major Division
1. Nebraska
2. Iowa
3. Missouri
4. Mississippi
5. Illinois
6. Arkansas
7. Northwestern
 
Minor Division
1. Mississippi State
2. Kansas State
3. Minnesota
4. Kansas
5. Iowa State
6. Memphis
7. Arkansas State
8. Northern Illinois
 
Notes: Think on this, The #10 team in this region, was a game away from going to the Big 12 championship.  This Region may not have the heavyweights that some others do, but it is full of solid programs and some good coaching staffs.
 
REGION:GREAT LAKES
Major Division
1. Cincinnati
2. Ohio State
3. Central Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Bowling Green
6. Notre Dame
7. Purdue
 
Minor Division
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ball State
4. Western Michigan
5. Miami, OH
6. Toledo
7. Indiana
8. Eastern Michigan
 
Notes: They love their football around the Great Lakes and this would be a hotly contested region.  Most of the better MAC teams tossed in with the class of the Big 12, plus the up and coming Bearcats.  You can go ahead and feel bad for Indiana and Eastern Michigan.

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