Wednesday, October 31, 2012

College football rankings after week 9

One more week of clarification, separating the big boys from the also-rans..and so on and son on.

What did we see this week, well we saw a whole bunch of unbeaten teams fall by the wayside. Though, not all of them were a surprise, no one outside of Mississippi really expected the Bulldogs to hang with the Tide….and they didn’t.

What else? Well, we saw Kansas State and Notre Dame step up in big ways and have statement games against teams that were widely expected to be a challenge for the favorites.

Notre Dame’s win against OU was the best game the Irish have played all year, and probably the best opponent they have played as well…certainly the most explosive offense. The execution of their offense was what stood out for me. We knew their D was ready for primetime, but they schemed well and attacked the weaknesses of the OU defense.

The pundits were excited to see how the 2 teams that beat upon West Virginia in back to weeks would stack up against each other when Kansas State hosted the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Well, it was close at halftime, and then Bill Snyder showed why he is considered to be one of the best coaches in the history of college football as the Wildcats adjust and throttled the Red Raiders. In the end, it was just another blow out win, but this time it was over the #15 AP team. That’s big.

The SEC East had some news too. Georgia looked like the team they were expected to be knocking off a Gator team that had been the bully on the block to this point with a stifling defensive effort. That, paired with the injury to Marcus Lattimore puts Georgia in the driver seat for another trip to Atlanta. They better count their blessings and run with it because they lucked out..again, with their schedule.

Oh, and if you werent’ sure, Duke is not for real yet.

On to the rankings

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 7.029 The Crimson Tide needed a quality win, and they got one.  You can say what you want about the schedule Mississippi State had played, they were and SEC team that was 7-0.  They were easily the best team that Bama had played to this point, but it was more of the same.  The defense shut down Mississippi State, and the offense was efficient and effective.  Next up?  A trip to LSU.  Queue the press frenzy.  Oh, and someone put the paramedics on standby for Mettenburger because the Tide defense is likely to kill that boy.   2. Kansas State Wildcats 6.953
This ranking is going to piss off the Irish faithful, but KSU has been dominating teams all year long.  That said, the Cats have a much rougher road than the Irish do.  Oklahoma State this week is down a bit this year, but they are still a ranked team and have one of the more explosive offensive schemes in the country.  TCU and Baylor have a punchers chance and who knows what Texas will be in a month.  I don't look for Snyder, Brown, and Klein to let them lose focus, but they had better not.

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6.775
This game, as impressive as it was, was the first good team that the Irish beat handily this season. They need to blow out Pitt, BC, and Wake Forest before end the season with USC. Flat out, they need to put some points up and they need to but a beating on USC too if they want to deserve a shot at the title.


4. Oregon Ducks 6.720 Speaking of upset fan bases, the Ducks fans are going to be irate when they see this one.  You have to give the Ducks one thing, they are doing what they can, and controlling what they can control, but when your conference brings in a team as bad as Colorado.  You blow them out and move on, and the Ducks did.  If the Ducks run their last 4, they could easily leapfrog the Cats and the Irish.  In fact....let's stop and project that.   Project scores for the top 5 currently if they win out   K-State: 10.243 Bama: 10.000 Notre Dame: 9.648 Ducks: 9.810 Noles: 9.956   Yup, that's right.  If each of these teams do what they are expected to do, and beat teams in the fashion that they have been beating them, Kansas State would be sitting #1 at the end of the season.  Now, that does not account for the conference championship games.  If we count those games, Bama and Oregon will both pass the Cats from having one more win and raising their total and average strength of schedule.  The question is, if we are deciding between 2 teams, can we count the conference championships?  Something tells me we will have call to talk about that soon enough.   

5. Florida State Seminoles 6.564
The Seminole faithful have to be sick as they watch this team roll, thinking back to how a conservative game plan cost them their shot at a national title berth.  That is not to say that they would necessarily leapfrog one of the higher rated teams, nor are they necessarily favored to go unbeaten with the Gators on the schedule.  That said, damn this lead is loaded with talent.  They are now missing their best Defensive End and Starting Running Back and you would have no idea by watching.  That said, this last week was just Duke, whether it was the best Blue Devil team in a decade or not.  The Hokies are up next, and and they tend to play FSU tough.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes 6.101
They just don't lose.  A solid win against a decent Penn State squad was a nice win.  I have little doubt at this point that the Buckeyes are the best team in the Big Ten, and I don' think it's close.  Hopefully, that will be some conciliation to their fans as they watch someone else playing in the Rose Bowl.

Oh, and Braxton Miller is going to Ridiculous when he progresses as a passer.

7. Florida Gators 5.850
A tough loss to an inspired Georgia Bulldog team is nothing to be ashamed of, but it is likely to end any hope that the Gators had at a BCS berth. Flat out, if you can't make it to your conference championship, you are going to be hard pressed to justify yourself as a top contender.  Now, the Gators need to show us that they are mentally tough, so that they can focus on the next team up on the schedule.  Mizzou should be a win, but there is talent there and if there is an emotional letdown, it could be a trap game.  Oh, and FSU is there to finish up the season, and their defense could be a real challenge for Jeff Driskel.

8. Georgia Bulldogs 5.534
I know, I know, they should not be behind the Gators after they beat them.  But have you seen the schedule that the Gators have played?  The Dawgs' schedule is not close.  A huge win for them in Jacksonville though, which sets them up as the favorite to rep the SEC-East in the Championship game.

9. Texas A&M Aggies 5.490
The Aggies have been a surprise to the SEC, but not so much to those of us who watched them in the Big 12.  This team, led by Johnny Football (Manziel) is loaded and should only get better over the next few years.  That said, their season is not over, they have an outside shot to shake up the football landscape.  Think about this, what happens if they find a way to run the table, beating Mississippi State, Bama, and Mizzou along the way.  Their 2 losses make their odds of repping the SEC west in the conference championship low, but if they give Bama a loss, it would open the possibility of the SEC being left out of the BCS championship.  Not likely, but it's an interesting thought.

10. South Carolina Gamecocks 5.278
The Gamecocks are a very talented team, but they are not a contender without Marcus Lattimore.  End of Story.

11. LSU Tigers 4.970
They get their shot to play spoiler, just like mentioned above by for the Aggies.  The difference is, if LSU wins out, they will represent the SEC West in the conference title game.  However, is there a legitimate chance the Tigers could jump into the BCS title game.  I am pretty sure Georgia can't get there, and I don't think the LSU has shown enough to get included either unless 2 of the other 3 unbeaten fall in the meantime.

12. Clemson Tigers 4.840
The Tigers' defense is acting like they have finally adjusted to the their new scheme, giving up only 30 combined points in the last 2 games.  They should roll through the next 3, and should be excited that South Carolina is wounded with that rivalry game to end the season.  If they, and FSU, can win out, the ACC will likely have 2 BCS representatives.  If that can happen, this would be a banner year for the conference.

13. Texas Tech Red Raiders 4.703
Red Raider fans, do not be dismayed.  Losing in Manhattan is no great shame this year.  The Wildcats are loaded and efficient.  The Red Raiders are only a very good team. They have a shot at being the #3 team in the Big 12.  It is going to require them to beat the GD Texas Longhorns, which I am sure they will happy to do.

14. Oklahoma Sooners 4.560
Landry Jones was never going to lead anyone to the promised land.  He has all the talent in the world,and none of the passion.  BENCH HIM NOW.

That is all, thank you.

15. Mississippi State Bulldogs 4.453
Well, Dan Mullen's team is improved, and is widely regarded as a quality team.  They are not at the elite level yet though, and the question now is...how close are they?  With the Texas Aggies and the Bayou Bengals up the next 2 weeks, they have a chance to prove themselves.  To join in with the fun, what is they beat LSU and lose to the Aggies, then the Aggies beat Bama.  Go ahead and call it a 4 way tie at the top of the division.  Not going to happen, but hey...parity is fun.

16. Stanford Cardinal 4.358
Stanford has the look of another good, but not great, team.  They are very sound in their scheme and execution and have a very strong rushing attack.  They are not as explosive as some other teams in the country though.  That said, they are still in a position that they control their own destiny in the Pac-12. The problem is, so does Oregon, and we all saw what Oregon did to a better Stanford team last year.

17. USC Trojans 4.340
Yeah, the Trojans just are not a complete team. But, that is the point of stripping scholarships.  They do not have the depth to miss on any recruits or have guys leave early.  That lack of depth is killing the Trojans on defense.  They get tired, and it cost them against the Wildcats.

18. Louisville Cardinals 4.174
They won a tight game against a very good Cincy team to stay unbeaten.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that their only tough game left, in order to bolster their SoS, is Rutgers who just lost to a team from the MAC.  The Cardinals are doing what they can, and controlling what they can, but they are not going to get much higher than this.  That said, an unbeaten season would get them a conference title, and it would hard to deny an unbeaten conference champ a BCS berth.

19. Boise State Broncos 4.121
The Broncos are in the same boat as the Cardinals, minus the unbeaten part.  These 2 are going to be fighting to the bitter end for that at-large berth.

20. Oregon State Beavers 4.057
The Beavers finally lost a game, which was expected, but had been all season.  They have been a very pleasant surprise, and still control their own destiny in the Pac-12...but again, so do those boys who play over in Autzen.

21. Oklahoma State Cowboys 3.980
The Cowboys have a chance to be last year's Iowa State and spoil the Big 12's shot at a title game berth when they match up with K-State this week.  It is a tough task they are taking on, but if they can do what noone else has been able to, they will have a shot.  They need to find a way to turn K-State over and give the ball back to their offense.  Good luck with that!

22. Texas Longhorns 3.931
The Horns were lucky to escape Lawrence friggin Kansas with a win.  I have heard people talking that this was just a sign of the immaturity of this Longhorns team, that they had overlooked the Jayhawks.  That may be true, but it's a sign of another thing.  The Longhorns cannot stop the run.  KU, as bad as they are, have a very good rushing attack with a stable of solid backs.  Texas could not get them off the field.  This does not bode well with Texas Tech and K-State both left on the schedule.  Both of these teams have a commitment to the run, the latter more than the former admittedly, and will likely gash the longhorns

23. Arizona Wildcats 3.925
RichRod has his first noisemaking win in the Pac-12 with his team furious comeback to beat USC.  His offense is sound, always has been.  Now he needs to start recruiting to stock up that defense.

24. Toledo Rockets 3.908
Toledo has not gotten a lot of love, but they are a very good team in the MAC.  They think they are the class of the league, and have the chance to prove it.  Their next 2 conference opponents are #1 (tied with Toledo) and #3 in their division and are combined 14-4 on the season.  The Rockets only loss is a 1 touchdown road loss to Arizona to open the season, and they have a chance to have a special season out the MAC.

25. Rutgers Scarlett Knights 3.885
Wow, a home loss to a MAC team is a hell of a way to lose the shine off of a surprisingly good season.  That said, losing to a ranked team is no great shame.  They still control their own destiny in their conference, time to get to work with Cincy and Louisville coming up soon.

26. Nebraska Cornhuskers 3.872
A huge win over Michigan puts the Cornhuskers at the top of the 'Legends' division in the Big 10.  Sparty and Penn State are up next before 2 games that should be wins against Minnesota and Iowa.  Sparty is reeling late in the season, and the Huskers look to be on the upswing, but the Nittany Lions are playing for pride.  It might be enough to make it interesting.

27. Wisconsin Badgers 3.850
Wisconsin is the best eligible team in the 'Leaders' division, and they are in third place.  That said, handle your business and you will get your shot Badgers.

28(tie). Arizona State Sun Devils 3.840
The Sun Devils need to pick themselves up off the mat.  The loss to Oregon was no huge surprise, but the loss to UCLA hurts.  The Sun Devils are in trouble in the Pac-12 South and have Oregon State, USC, and their rival, the Arizona Wildcats in their last 4.  They have to run the table, and get help, to have a shot.

28(tie). Fresno State Bulldogs 3.840
Fresno remains a decent team who had the cojones to step up and play someone out of conference.  They are in second place behind Boise right now, and have to run the table to stay in striking distance, but with them having lost to Boise, second is likely the best they are going to get. 

30. Cincinnati Bearcats 3.793
Cincy is still a good team, but back to back losses have them on the edge of dropping out of the rankings. 

So, which conference is best so far?  Here are the counts:
ACC:  2
BIG EAST: 3
BIG TEN: 3
BIG 12: 5
INDEPENDENT: 1
MAC: 1
MWC: 2
PAC-12: 6
SEC: 7

So, no great surprises.

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