The Case for Cooperstown: Dale Murphy

With the release of the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot, Waiver Wire writer Greg Kaplan will explore the candidacy of numerous names on the ballot. Points for and against induction will be presented, and we’re forcing him to make a decision at the end of each post to decide if that player should be placed alongside the immortals that have played baseball throughout history.
Previous Cases – Jack Morris – Jeff Bagwell – Lee Smith – Tim Raines – Alan Trammell– Edgar Martinez – Fred McGriff – Larry Walker – Mark McGwire - Don Mattingly

Dale Murphy
Year(s) on ballot – 15th (received 14.5% of vote last year)
Credentials – 18 years in MLB (parts of 15 with Atlanta Braves), career .265/.346/.469, 398HRs, 1,266RBI, 2,111 hits, 1,197 runs, seven-time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove winner, four-time Silver Slugger, back-to-back National League MVP in 1982-83

The Case For:
In the early 1980?s, there were two players ruled the National League by playing at an absurd level both offensively and defensively. One was Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt with the Phillies, and the other was Dale Murphy.

At the apex of his career, Murphy drilled 29+ home runs in seven of eight seasons, led the National League in RBIs twice (both of his MVP seasons, ’82-’83), led the league in home runs twice (and hit a career-high 44 in ’87), four times scored 110+ runs and even notched a 30HR/30SB season in ’83.

Also, Dale Murphy is one of only four players in MLB history to win back-to-back MVP awards, and was the second player ever to accomplish the feat. He is also one of only 29 players in the history of the game to win multiple MVP awards. 22 of which are already Hall of Famers, one is on the ballot this year with Murphy for the first time (Barry Bonds), one is yet to be eligible (Frank Thomas) and two are still playing and are near locks for Cooperstown (Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez). Only two players of the 28 not named Murphy (Roger Maris and Juan Gonzalez) aren’t in the Hall of Fame and are no longer eligible on the writer’s ballot.

From 1982-85, there was no player in baseball more reliable and steady than Murphy. If you take his lowest totals from those four seasons, you’d still have yourself an All-Star caliber player. He hit 36+ home runs each year, drove in 100+ runs, scored 94+ runs himself, hit at least .281, drew 79+ walks and won Gold Gloves each season. He also won both his MVPs during that stretch.

From 1982-83, he led the league in RBIs both years, then the next two years, led the league in home
runs.  He also led the league in slugging percentage twice in 1983-84, and posted the best OPS in the Majors in ’83. During this four-year run, Murphy also was in the top five of most times reached base each season, including reaching base a league-high 276 times in 1985.

Murphy was also a terrific defender throughout his career. He led the league in outfield assists twice, once as a center fielder in 1985 and another time as a right fielder in 1988.

The Case Against:
Dale Murphy just had to turn 32, didn’t he. It’s like Murphy blew out the candles on his cake after the 1987 season and aged 10 years in a flash. Check out the lines from his ’87 season to his ’88 season:
1987 (age 31): 159 games, .295/.417(career-high)/.580(career-high), 44HRs (career-high), 105RBI, 115 runs, 115 walks (career-high), 136 Ks, 157 OPS+ (career-high)

1988 (age 32): 156 games, .226/.313/.421, 24HR, 77RBI, 77 runs, 74 walks, 125 Ks, 106 OPS+

Things got even worse when Murphy turned 33, when his OPS+ dipped down to 89 despite playing in 154 games and hitting 20 home runs. Throughout his career, Murphy always struck out a ton, leading the league three times in that category and fanning 130 times or more nine times. But, when Murphy stopped making consistent contact later in his career, his high strikeout rate seemed to plummet the rest of his statistics like never before.

The debate about Murphy’s career boils down to was his peak sustained for a long enough period of time to overrule his rather rapid decline in skills? It’s a very similar debate voters had to tackle with in regards to Jim Rice, who eventually did get into the Hall of Fame after years on the ballot.

Without question, when Murphy was at his absolute career best, he was one of the best in the game, if not the best in the game. He’s a multiple MVP winner, one of only 29 players in the game to accomplish that feat, with 26 of those either being in the Hall already, or will be eventually.

In my opinion, Dale Murphy was among the elite at the peak of his career, which lasted the better part of eight seasons. However, he probably didn’t sustain that level of play long enough to warrant enshrinement. Players have been voted into the Hall of Fame despite short peaks, most notably Sandy Koufax. However, the difference between Koufax at his apex and Murphy at his was that nobody in the game, or in the history of the game, was better than Sandy Koufax at his best.

Dale Murphy, at his best, was a borderline Hall of Fame talent that likely would have been a Hall of Fame player if he was able to extend his peak. It’s a shame that Murphy won’t get into the Hall of Fame, but it is a place reserved for those who had amazing careers, not incredible peaks. That seems to be what’s keeping Murphy out.

Alexander Herd

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