Thursday, December 16, 2010

College Football Re-alignment for 2011

Yup, it's that time of year again. 

It's time to look at what happened and what could/should/never will be.  I have once again, put together my regions.  I then looked at their records, giving weight to regional games and games against opponents in the "major" divisions and applied a promotion/demotion system.

There are a few changes from last  year..

1.  I added weight to wins against "major" opponents.  This would encourage, and does reward, games against good teams.  I was concerned that it may skew the numbers in favor of the AQ schools, but with a good number of At-Large teams in the "major" conferences, it does not appear to have thrown off the balance.

2. I adjusted the promotion system so that any team with a top 3 score regionally is promoted.  This did affect a few regions.  I feel that if a team can run off a 9 or 10 win season, they should have a chance to prove that they belong regardless of their region.  An example is the Southeast Region where these 8 teams were involved with the promotion.  As noted, the top 2 lines would have been the old system.

Promotion/Demotion
Auburn/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Clemson
South Carolina/South Mississippi
Central Florida/Georgia

I don't think there is anyone out there who would challenge those, with the exception of some Georgia fans.  However, I will take a conference champ against a midling bowl team anytime.  That is also an example of how the game weights did not skew in the favor of AQ's.

3. The biggest change I made was eliminated the need for a team to be in the "major" divisions to play in the tournament.  The Major/Minor distinction is still significant because it is where the strength of schedule comes into play.  With the added weight given to those games, it rewards teams for playing other teams who have solid programs.  However, looking at this year, if we blocked out the teams who were not in "major" divisions, several of the top teams would have been left out.  Among these are the following seeds in the tournament: 1, 5, 6, 10, 17, 21, 22, 24, 27, 28, and 30.  That is 11 of the 32 who finished in the top half of their regions.  My earlier logic was a bit flawed, and the process has been adjusted to correct for it.

The final standings for this year show as

NORTHEAST
1ST: TEMPLE
2ND: CONNECTICUT
3RD: PENN STATE
4TH: SYRACUSE
SOUTHEAST
1ST: AUBURN
2ND: FLORIDA STATE
3RD: SOUTH CAROLINA
4TH: MIAMI
PACIFIC
1ST: OREGON
2ND: NEVADA
3RD: STANFORD
4TH: BOISE STATE
MOUNTAIN
1ST: TEXAS TECH
2ND: UTAH
3RD: ARIZONA STATE
4TH: UTEP
SOUTH CENTRAL
1ST: TCU
2ND: LSU
3RD: OKLAHOMA
4: HOUSTON
EASTERN
1ST: VIRGINIA TECH
2ND: NORTH CAROLINA STATE
3RD: ALABAMA
4TH; NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL
1ST: NEBRASKA
2ND: MISSISSIPPI STATE
3RD: NORTHERN ILLINOIS
4TH: MISSOURI
GREAT LAKES
1ST: MICHIGAN STATE
2ND: WISCONSIN
3RD: OHIO STATE
4TH: MIAMI, (OH)

These left us with the following match ups for the first round.



Result of games were obtained throuhg use of of WhatIFSports simulation engine.

ROUND 1

1. Auburn
vs.
32. North Carolina

This North Carolina team would be just the kind of team that would have a chance to ruin the Cam Newton victory lap, if it were whole.  As it is, it would be a good match up, if Cam weren't playing. This would be very similar to the SEC games that Auburn played in.  Carolina would score, Auburn would score last.  With Auburn's questionable secondary, this could have been a nice, national display for T.J. Yates to get himself in the draft conversation.  He had some rough times last year, but he has carried this team to a bowl after a number of his more ballyhooed teammates made drastic mistakes that cost the team dearly.  Auburn by 3.
8. Stanford
vs.
25. Boise State

Stanford may be the higher ranked team, but they would be in for the fight in this one.  I am not sure they are the more talented team, not that they have the best leader at QB.  Andrew Luck has a bit more talent than Kellen Moore, but he is no more accurate, nor gutsy than the lefty for Boise.  I see Stanford having to control the clock to have a chance because I don't think there is a secondary in the country that can cover the myriad of talented receivers the Broncos put out there.  I think Boise wins this one.  WhatIf agrees.  Boise by 10.

9. Oklahoma
vs.
24. Mississippi State

Mississippi State has had a fine season and coach Mullen has a great scheme that will work.  That said, they don't have the playmakers in that scheme yet for them to score with Sooners.  They would run the ball and try to keep it out of Landry's Jones' hands, but he would get it enough.  OU wins this one by 10+.

16. Temple
vs.
17. South Carolina

Temple has its best football team in its entire history right now.  What they don't have is the pair of playmakers that the Gamecocks do in Alshon Jeffries and Marcus Lattimore.  Temple would be game, but South Carolina wins by double digits.


13. Ohio State
vs.
20. Houston

Houston needs to make the jump to a major conference.  The Big 12 is sitting there with half of the old SWC just waiting for them to come play.  Until they do that, they will not be able to recruit the players that will let them hang with a team as loaded as Ohio State.  That is in a normal year, but you toss in Terrelle Pryor and an Buckeye team that feels like it has been overlooked nationally.  This is one where I and the simulator differed.  I have OSU winning big, but WhatIf has this as a statistical tossup with Houston having a slight edge.  Houston wins.

12. North Carolina State
vs.
21. Miami (OH)

This game is a bit tougher.  North Carolina State choked its way out of the ACC championship game after Florida State handed it to them on platter.  Miami (OH) backed its way into the MAC championship and pulled off a big upset against a more talented Northern Illinois team.  I expect that the Wolfpack will come out attacking and angry at themselves in this game.  WhatIF has Thomas Meriweather running wild against the WolfPack though with the Redhawks advancing.
5. Michigan State
vs.
28. Northern Illinois

This is odd to say, but I think that Northern Illinois may be faster than the Spartans.  That said, they are still the team that lost to Iowa State and Illinois.  Sparty will just run the ball right down their throats in this one.

4. TCU
vs.
29. Missouri

Now this would be a fun game.  Strength against strength with Missouri potent offense that sliced through their schedule against TCU's defense that shut down nearly everyone they played.  We do have one good measuring stick to use.  San Diego State.  Missouri played them early and won by 3, TCU played them late and won by 5.  I really want to go with Missouri here, but I think TCU is too balanced.

3. Oregon
vs.
30. Arizona State

For the uninformed, this looks like it would be a blow-out.  For those who take the time to do a wee bit of research, this game might just be fun.  The last time these 2 played it was a back forth for a good chunk with the Sun Devils moving the ball at will as Steven Threet threw for 387 yards.  However, the Ducks caused 7 turnovers, and you really can't give that offense extra chances.  The problem with that theory is, that game was pretty early in the season and Darron Thomas and Oregon's defense are both better now.  ASU would be hard pressed to stay within 11 again.

6. LSU
vs.
27. Syracuse

This is another of those games where the names on the Jerseys really stand out and beg for a prediction, but before you throw the OrangeMen under the bus, I want to point their game on October 23rd.  They beat West Virginia 19-14.  Now turn to LSU schedule and look at September 25th where they beat that same West Virginia team 20-14.  LSU was at home, Syracuse on the road.  That said, Syracuse is well coached, and tough.  They do not make mistakes, and they have blown away the expectations that were laid on them at the beginning of the year. BUT, they have trouble with teams who are committed to running the ball.  I would give them a puncher's chance, especially with LSU's relatively weak passing attack, but look for LSU to win by 7 or so in a bloody, smash-mouth game.

11. Wisconsin
vs.
22. Connecticut

This would be a great game for the football traditionalists out there.  These are physical teams that are built from the trenches out.  Both have Offensive Lines that dominated their conferences.  However the comparison of the 2 lines says a lot about these teams.  UConn is good, Wisconsin's is better with the Lombardi trophy winning Gabe Carimi leading the way.  Wisonsin is better at every position, and will load up against a UConn team with a negligible passing attack.  This one is ugly and over early.

14. Alabama
vs.
19. Utah

Utah is usually one of my favorite teams of the mid-majors.  They recruit well and have won enough that the PAC-10 came calling.  This is not one of their better teams though, and Bama is finishing this season mad after choking against rival Auburn.  Bama wins this one big and gets a little revenge.

15. Nebraska
vs.
18. Texas Tech

For some reason, the Cornhuskers and their faithful nation of red-clad followers feel that the Big 12 has given them a reason to be offended.  They are angry, and after losing to OU, they are embarrassed.  That is not good for the Red Raiders who were in trouble in this match up regardless.  I like what Tommy Tuberville is doing in Lubbock, but he just doesn't have the horses to run with Bo Pelini's blackshirts.

10. Florida State
vs.
23. Penn State

Bobby Bowden would love this game.  He would love this game because his Noles are starting to look like themselves again.  They were this close to an 11 win season and finished with 9 and wins against Miami and Florida.  They have big time speed, a veteran QB and the best pass rush in the country with talented, young corners behind it.  They are not perfect, but they will shred the Nittany Lions who have been inconsistent on offense all year long.  The last thing you want against a team that can pressure with 4 like the Noles can with ball hawking DB's behind it is to come at them without a veteran QB.  I have the Noles winning this by 2 TD's minimum. WhatIf disagrees on the spread, having it at just over a field goal.

7. Nevada
vs.
26. Miami

Nevada is a bit of a darling this year for the media aren't they?  They upset Boise and saved the BCS.  They have the best rushing tandem in the history of college football, a good coach, and a veteran defense, and there is no chance in hell that they can run with the Miami Hurricanes.  The Canes should have been better than they were this year.  Their only real weakness is a young offensive line, but Nevada is not Florida State, nor are they Virginia Tech.  Leonard Hankerson is one of the more productive receivers to ever play for the Canes, and Nevada has no one who can cover him.  You toss in a solid rushing attack that won't have safeties in the box helping, and the Canes will score at will on Nevada.  And they won't get tired in the second half.  I have the Canes winning by plenty.  What If Disagress, having the Pack win in OT

2. Virginia Tech
vs.
31. UTEP

This is the hottest team in a bowl against the coldest team in a bowl.  UTEP is a nice story, and probably can be considered and up-and-coming team, but this is an ugly matchup.  Tyrod Taylor is playing assistant OC by the time the 4th quarter starts.


ROUND 2

1. Auburn
vs.
25 Boise State

I know that there are lot of people out there who don't think that Boise is any good, but the people I know who really pay attention say the same thing.  The only thing Boise doesn't have is the experience and consistency of having played in the better conferences.  They are at least as talented as anyone else in the country, and WhatIF agrees.  Boise by 2 TD's in a shocker, as Kellen Moore exposes the Auburn secondary.

9. Oklahoma
vs.
17. South Carolina

South Carolina has some very nice players, but OU is an elite team when it comes to the talent they put on the field.  The only reason that they were a bit down over the past year or so, was the sudden, forced, transition to Landry Jones.  Well, Landry Jones is playing much more consistently, and the Sooner blow the Gamecocks on the field in this one.

20. Houston
vs.
21. Miami, OH

Houston is a team that should be chasing a spot in an AQ conference.  They were an SWC member who got left out in the cold, but they are still much better than the Redhawks.  Cougars by 2 TD's.

5. Michigan State
vs.
4. TCU

The Spartans are very game bunch, but TCU has the #1 defense in the country.  They show it, holding the Spartans down and winning by double digits.

3. Oregon
vs.
6. LSU

LSU hung around in the hunt for the BCS title game for a long time on the strength of their defense.  The problem is, no matter who they are playing, they can't score.  Oregon puts the biggest beatdown of the tournament so far on the Bayou Bengals.  Ducks by 27.

11. Wisconsin
vs.
14. Alabama

Wisconsin opened some eyes late in the year as they put up 70+ points twice in Big 10 play.  Well, Alabama is not a Big 10 bottom dweller as they go toe to toe with the Badgers.  This is one of the great games of the second round, with Bama winning on a late field goal.

15. Nebraska
vs.
10. Florida State

It had been awhile since these two schools had gotten together, and the stakes are always high when they do.  Both of these teams have young coaches who are on the way up, and coincidentally, they were on the LSU coaching staff together from 2005-2007.  Jimbo Fisher as OC and Bo Pelini as DC, and the talent and familiarity show in this game with the Huskers winning by a field goal in OT.

7. Nevada
vs.
2. Virginia Tech

Boy, what a week of football this would be.  Another field goal win in OT as Nevada is doing their damndest to prove that their upset of Boise should not have been such a shock.  In a smash mouth game, their veteran backfield leads the way to another OT win over a highly ranked opponent.  Nevada by 3 in overtime.



ROUND 3

25. Boise State
vs.
9. Oklahoma

Ok, now you find me a college football fan who wouldn't be intrigued by this matchup, and I'll find you a Commie Bastard.   Ok, so maybe that's a bit harsh, but a rematch of the epic overtime thriller that Boise won on a statue of liberty a few years back?  Now, that is a game worth seeing.  These are 2 of the most dynamic offenses in the country, and the lowest score by either offense in any of the simulations was 19.  OU is a nice team, but they are actually a hair behind the Broncos talent-wise.  Boise won 75% of the simulations and they win by a Touchdown over the Sooners.

20. Houston
vs.
4. TCU

In a matchup of 2 old Southwest conference rivals, two of the teams that got left out of the conference re-alignments show up to say that they still know how to play.  They do, but Houston reached its limit in this one.  TCU's defense kept their offense playing on a short field, and TCU dominated time of posession, keeping the electric Houston offense off the field.  TCU wins by 14.

3. Oregon
vs.
14. Alabama

Now, this is a great matchup.  The incredible speed and relentlessness of the Oregon attack against the punishing, physical Alabama Crimson Tide.  Both of these teams think they should be playing for a national title, and joy of joys, they get to earn their way by playing each other.  This is one of those games, that if it had been the matchup for the title game, noone would have complained one bit.   As for the actual, simulated, game.....Well Oregon basically makes you chase them until you get tired, and their defense does juts enough.  Well, Alabama is so stacked with talent they aren't going to get tired, and they have one of the top offenses themselves.  Bama by 8.

15. Nebraska
vs.
7. Nevada

This is a game is like David and Goliath, execpt they are both holding slings.  Both teams are run heavy, with star quarterbacks who can hit the home run.  Nebraska's D is much better than Nevada's, but that's not where the difference lies.  The key, like he has been to most of Nebraska's season, is Taylor Martinez.  If he plays, Nebraska wins by 22.  If he doesn't, they lose by a field goal.  Without him, their offense is just not as dynamic. With him on the field, they are always making positive plays.  As far as I know he is healthy, and I am going to say that the chance at a national title fixes what ails the Huskers internally.  Huskers win in a walk.



ROUND 4 (FINAL FOUR)

25. Boise State
vs.
4. TCU

Usually, I am up in arms when these 2 teams are faced off in a Bowl game.  Then again, usually, that is doneto protect the AQ teams from being exposed/learning the truth about these "mid-majors".  This one is for a birth in the national title game, and the team getting exposed is TCU.  Kellen Moore chewed them up, and the Boise State did the same to Andy Dalton.  Boise State follows Kellen's 300+ yard passing game to a 3 touchdown victory and a birth in the Title Game.

14. Alabama
vs.
15. Nebraska

Taylor Martinez is fast, but you can't just outrun the Alabama defense.  Greg McElroy makes a nice showing for himself as he steps out of the shadows of Greg Ingram a bit and throws for 350+ yards against the vaunted "Blackshirts" defense.  The Tide wins going away by 23.



25. Boise St.
vs.
14. Alabama

These 2 were 2 of the favorites to make it to the BCS championship at the start of this season, and for good reason.  This is a great matchup.  Both of these teams are full of athletes who create matchup issues, and are better coached than nearly anyone else in the country.  In each other, they find teams that can run with them and it comes down to who gets the bounces. 

In my sims, Boise wins by a point off a winning drive led by Kellen Moore. 

BOISE STATE 35        ALABAMA 34

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