Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Jeremy Who? The Post-Linsanity New York Knicks

It’s a pretty excellent time to be a Knicks fan.  The first few weeks of the season haven’t just been marked by a dominant record, but by a culture change that has fans believing like they haven’t in more than a decade.  Much has been made of Carmelo Anthony’s new-found commitment to defense, sharing the ball and leadership, and it has been a huge factor in the Knicks’ early season dominance.  But there’s more at play than just a rejuvenated superstar finally putting all the pieces together.  Mike Woodson is in contention for Coach of the Year for the way he’s motivated his roster to buy in and the numerous veterans, the object of many a pre-season joke, have given New York a maturity and a will to win that can’t be underestimated.  One of those veterans, Jason Kidd, is half of the Knicks’ other biggest change.

Their back court, lead by Felton, who starts alongside Kidd for a two point guard set, has cultivated ball movement that is practically Popovichian and has brought out the best in a roster which is shockingly, almost unbelievably, deep.  Over the summer the Knicks caught a great deal of flack for letting Jeremy Lin, the breakout phenom from the middle of the 2011-2012 campaign, go to Houston.  The move seemed to be motivated more by James Dolan’s spite than basketball and a young player with tremendous marketing appeal and lots of upside was suddenly gone, a scant few months after taking a city over.  Well now that move is looking like the craftiest of them all as the Felton/Kidd combo hasn’t just been tremendous, but they’ve been everything Jeremy Lin isn’t.

  Don’t get me wrong, I like Lin.  During the run that became known as “Linsanity” I watched every game and was in basketball heaven. I don’t think he was a flash in the pan; he has the potential to be a solid starter in this league for a long time and he’s got the mental toughness to take big shots when needed.  Will he ever reach the heights he did during Linsanity?  Probably not.  That was a strange convergence of injuries, schedule, opportunity and just a dash of sports magic.  Each day it happened I’d talk to fellow Knick fans to confirm what I was seeing was real and everyone just let themselves get lost in the scrappy team lead by the D-league Harvard kid.  Then Carmelo came back and the magic faded a bit.  Lin got hurt and Carmelo won the city back with an amazing Easter game against the Bulls and things returned to normal, mediocre basketball.  It was easy for people to try and tear Lin down.  He’s an average passer and ball handler prone to turnovers and he can’t go left.  His shooting percentage also leaves a lot to be desired.  It was also easy to overlook those things with the results he had with the Knicks.  But no matter where you landed on Lin he would be a terrible fit for this Knicks team.  His substandard defense would have stood out in this ferocious bunch of perimeter defenders, and his need to drive to the rim for real effectiveness would have been nice at times, but unlike 2012-2013 Raymond Felton, he never really balanced it with being a creator and a threat from downtown.  Melo has been a much more willing passer this year, but his effectiveness has come from working with the ball in the post and using the paint to post up slower defenders and pass out of double teams.  Lin’s love of driving right would have been hampered by Melo’s presence.  Then there’s regression.

Lin was always going to regress from the player who dropped 38 points on the Lakers.  Hell, he was essentially a rookie during Linsanity and the word wasn’t out on forcing him to go left and his knack for turning the ball over when pressured.    That regression is in full swing with the Rockets.  Lin and Harden are a good match for each other (Harden can take over some of the play creating duties that Lin is merely average at) and I expect Lin to play a role in Houston’s future success. That being said, he’s not exactly lighting it up.  Lin’s turnover rate has improved (he’s averaging 1  less turnover per game in 7.3 more minutes) and he’s been a better free throw shooter  but otherwise he hasn’t been particularly impressive, especially compared to the early part of his run with the Knicks.  Let’s a take a look at a few key stats:

Game PlayedMinutesFG%3P%ASTPoints PER
2011-2012  NY 3526.90.4460.326.214.619.97
2012-2013 HOU 1134.20.3420.2426.610.513.29

Lin’s time in Houston, of course, is a smaller sample size and he should improve as he develops.  But in the short term, relevant for a Knicks squad built to win now,  he’s taken a step back.  The chart shows a 0.4 increase in assists but that’s negated by the increase in minutes and the other categories, most notably FG% and PER have dropped off in a big way.  Lin’s player efficiency rating dropped from above the league average (15.00) to below it.  This isn’t an article about the flaws of Lin, though.  The point is that he’d have no place starting on the 2012-2013 Knicks who, thus far, have looked like a real contender in the East and are built for the present.  Beyond that, the things that have transformed them – ball movement, a bevy of shooters with range, Melo’s leadership role and willingness to facilitate, and stifling defense – don’t play to Lin’s strengths.  Considering the widespread criticism of the Knicks for Lin’s departure, these results have been pretty significant so far, and surprisingly under the radar as a story.

For the sake of comparison let’s take a look at Raymond Felton’s number (again, limited sample size):

Game PlayedMinutesFG%3P%ASTPoints PER
2012-2013  NY 832.60.4210.3646.515.518.05

While Felton’s assists are 0.1 lower (in about two less minutes) it bears repeating that the Knicks start two PGs at once in their back court and this distorts the number as Felton shares some of the responsibility of running the offense.  One of the important difference here isn’t the extra scoring he adds each game (though that doesn’t hurt) but rather the major efficiency upgrade he brings.  His shooting percentage and three point range are a big part of the PER edge he has on Lin and part of the reason that he’s been such an asset for the surging Knickerbockers.

The Ray Felton/Jason Kidd back court  has spoken for itself in terms of production and eye test confirms what the numbers are saying.  Kidd’s stats aren’t popping off the page but his presence on the court is visible and he’s a big part of the Knicks newfound love of moving the ball around the court.  I could gush about this squad for days on end.  They play the right way and their depth gives the fans a reason to believe, but the changing of the guard (pun intended) in the back court has been an underrated story.

 Last year New York fell head over heels for Jeremy Lin but these days it’s looking like that was just puppy love.  The Knicks may be old, but this new fan love is all grown up.


Alexander Herd

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