Arguably, there is no question bigger than the one surrounding former league MVP Josh Hamilton and where he might be playing next year. Staff veterans Greg Kaplan and Vinny Ginardi gather to discuss if the Texas Rangers may actually be a better team without a commitment to Josh Hamilton..
Greg Kaplan: It’s a very interesting question to ask, and at face value I don’t think many people would take you seriously if you posed it without giving a sufficient answer. So, this is my attempt to give a clear answer.
As far as next year is concerned, it seems as though the best decision the Rangers could make would be to bring back Josh Hamilton. There’s a reason why Hamilton has been selected to five straight All-Star teams. Hamilton’s 2012 triple slash of .285/.354/.577 is right around his averages over the last five years, and we can add in those 43 home runs and 128 RBI. And if you want to argue that RBI are a poor indicator of total value, let’s add on the career-high 103 runs scored, just to cover my own butt.
Despite a few very public miscues in the outfield in big situations, Hamilton is also a solid defensive player. Is he more exposed than he needs to be playing center field? Probably. But, that was a need for the Rangers, and Hamilton did everything he could to become a better defensive outfielder to help his team win.
Health will always remain a major concern for Hamilton, who seemed to be battling a new ailment every other day. Still, he managed to play in 148 games (only the second time in his career he’s played in over 140 games) and did so at a level that meets his previous career benchmarks.
The reason why I say Hamilton has more value to the Rangers for one year as opposed to multiple is this: I don’t care who you are, but you can’t replace both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli in the power department with one lateral move. That move does not exist. Just because the Ballpark at Arlington plays like a hitter’s paradise doesn’t mean any average hitter can waltz in and become an impact performer. It doesn’t work like that. While it seems rather certain that Napoli won’t return to Texas (the Rangers didn’t make him a qualifying offer, meaning the won’t receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere), the future surrounding Hamilton is much murkier. On one hand, the Rangers have said all the right things in regards to wanting to retain him. But, if they really wanted him, would they have let him reach free agency at all?
Now, I am firm in believing the Rangers will be better next year with Hamilton. But, this is also a team that needs to find a home for some of their best prospects, and one way to make that happen is to allow Hamilton to leave. For example, we’ve touched on the fact that Hamilton is not skilled enough to win a Gold Glove in center, and doesn’t have the same arm Nelson Cruz does to take the job in right. One player that could be a very interesting option in center field currently under contract by the Rangers, you ask?Ian Kinsler.
That’s right. Jurickson Profar is ready right now to make an impact at the Major League level. It would be foolish for the team to trade Elvis Andrus, their current shortstop, due to his abilities and how good he can still become. The future at third is occupied, for now, by Mike Olt, who made his debut last year as well, so a shift in the infield seems out of the question. An opening in center would keep Kinsler in the every day line-up and would alleviate the stress the Rangers front office has in regards to having two supremely talented youngsters stockpiled at shortstop.
Of course, that means they have to continue to deal with the stress of Josh Hamilton, which is maddening enough as it is.
Vinny Ginardi: The story I’m about to tell would be slightly more credible if I could remember most of the details. But I can’t. All I remember is it was either the Home Run Derby or the All-Star Game and one of the ESPN commentators said something along the lines of how Josh Hamilton would command a $200 million salary, one that could perhaps be the largest of all time. Well, he’s wrong (at least I hope a team wouldn’t give him that much, because he’s not worth it).
The question here shouldn’t be “Are the Rangers better off without Josh Hamilton?” because they probably aren’t, unless they find a quality replacement. Hamilton has produced a WAR of at least 4.1 four of the past five years, including the 2010 campaign when he totaled a WAR of 8.4. A WAR around 4.0-4.5 will usually rank somewhere around the fifth to tenth best for center fielders. It’s not easy to replace that kind of production. That being said, Hamilton is not a centerfielder. Defensive metrics show that he struggles in center and that isn’t something that is going to improve with age. He’s more suited to play corner outfield, and with age, may even need a transition to first at some point, which would make him even less valuable.
The second half of last season was a struggle and Hamilton struck out more than any other year in his career (25.5%). Is this an indicator of things to come? Hamilton has and will never be a patient hitter, and the fact that he’s striking out more now hints that pitchers are starting to figure him out. Since he doesn’t walk much, if Hamilton isn’t hitting, he almost seems worthless.
As Greg mentioned, Hamilton is also extremely prone to injuries. Since 2009, he’s only played in more than 133 games once. That’s not good for someone who is going to be 32 years old next season. The question becomes what is a fair contract for Hamilton? Because of his inconsistencies, Hamilton’s name has become bigger than his value, so I think he will probably make more than he should. If it were me, the most I would give him is a four year contract, somewhere in the $70-80 million range, but he is likely to make more than that.
If the Rangers let him go, they could easily replace him with Nick Swisher (and put him in a corner outfield position) and really not miss much. Swisher’s ability to get on-base will likely remain consistent, and while he doesn’t have the power numbers that Hamilton does, their average WAR isn’t that far apart. Or they could actually replace him in center with a true center fielder (perhaps the best defensively) in Michael Bourn, who is also a younger option.
In reality, the Rangers are a better team with Hamilton in the lineup, but he’s not worth the type of money they will need to pay him.
Alexander Herd
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