Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers to make Fantasy impacts in 2013!

Looking ahead to 2013, there are at least three or four youngsters who could make a fantasy impact this season. In a day and age when the NFL has become a passing league, wide receivers have become more valuable in fantasy leagues across the board. That includes the rookies, who, like the veterans, have benefitted from new rules that make it easier to get open and make plays. Case in point, the 2011 season saw a pair of rookie wideouts in A.J Green and Julio Jones make huge statistical impacts. In fact, both finished in the Top 20 in fantasy points at the position and neither of them played in a full 16 game season.

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1. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou (8) Clemson – 6’1 215lbs – 4.57 40-yard dash

DeAndre Hopkins is expected to take over the No.2 receiver spot across from Johnson which could prove very profitable as Texans receivers NOT named Andre Johnson, recorded  63 receptions for 841 yards (13.3 avg.) and 4  touchdowns in 2012. In 3 seasons Hopkins was able to record 206 receptions for 3,020 yards and 27 touchdowns including 18TDs in 13 games last season re-writing Clemson record books.

Hopkins has solid size and a frame with plenty of room to grow, strong natural receiving hands, quick feet off the line, able to beat press coverage and is a solid route runner in all short, intermediate, and deep games as well as coming across the middle of the field. Hopkins will be worth a late round pick as a sleeper, a mid- to late-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues and very likely a Top 15 pick in rookie-only drafts.

2. Tavon Austin, STL (11) West Virginia – 5’8 175lbs – 4.29 40-yard dash
Austin has excellent speed, clocking a 4.29 in the 40-yard dash. Austin was able to post back-to-back 100-catch seasons with the Mountaineers and Geno Smith while recording over 11 yards per reception. Austin will primarily work from the slot, shifting outside occasionally as we saw Amendola do frequently.

With 13 games indoors, Austin should be exciting to watch and owners should consider Austin a potential No. 3 Fantasy WR in the majority of all leagues (a bit more value in PPR formats). Owners can expect Austin to be drafted with a mid-round pick (yep, that high), but in rookie-only drafts he’s a first-round selection. He’s also a mid-round pick in dynasty/keeper leagues.

3. Terrance Williams, DAL (11) Baylor – 6’2 208lbs – 4.52 40-yard dash
Even with the loss of QB Robert Griffin III and WR Kendall Wright, Williams flourished in his senior year at Baylor. Williams caught 202 total receptions for 3,334 total yards, averaging 16.5 yards, and 27 total touchdowns in a 4-year career at Baylor, along with leading the country in receiving yards (1,832) on 97 receptions (18.9 average) along with 12 touchdowns in his senior year. In 2011, Williams will use his size, quick feet and top end speed to be a outside play-maker for Romo as he will likely win out the No. 3 WR spot across from Dez Bryant with Miles Austin working the slot. The No.3 receiver spot has been a position that capable receivers can take advantage of much weaker and lesser talented DBs and coverage as we saw former Cowboys WR Laurent Robinson produce 54receptions for 858yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games back in 2011.

4. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN (5) Tennessee – 6’2 215lbs – 4.42 40-yard dash
The Vikings surrendered a 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th Round picks to the Patriots to move up and draft the big speedy receiver 29th overall. Patterson is considered to be among the most potential-laden receivers in the draft thanks to his big size 6-foot-2, 216 pounds and registered 4.42 in the 40-yard dash. He came to the Volunteers in 2012 as one of the top junior college prospects in the nation after setting 13 program records during his time at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas. Patterson set an SEC single-season record with a combined kickoff and punt return average of 27.6 yards, and set a Tennessee record with 1,858 all-purpose yards and caught 46 receptions for 778 yards and 5 touchdowns on offense in his single season at Tennessee. He will line up across from Greg Jennings for a team in great need of a deep threat.

5. Aaron Dobson, NE (10)  Marshall – 6’3 203lbs – 4.42 40-yard dash
The Patriots have a terrible track record of drafting receivers under Bill Belichick, but will hope Dobson can be an immediate contributor on the outside. Dobson displayed his 4.4 wheels at the combine, has a solid reputation for picking up offenses quickly, extremely reliable and consistent natural pass catcher and a 6’3/210 frame, Dobson has a ton of upside and is a potential sleeper candidate in the Patriots high powered offense. At his Pro Day, he did NOT drop a single pass amongst 92 targets, and ran 40 yard dash times of 4.42 and 4.44. Provided he can shake the voodoo of Patriots past draft failures, Dobson could make an impact in Bill Belichick’s offense.

A Different Breed

The emergence of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham over the past two and a half seasons has turned the tight end position into an all out rat race.  If you don’t own either of these players, you know exactly what I’m talking about.  They’re a matchup nightmare on a weekly basis.  If you do own one of these guys, you just smile from ear to ear every week.  It’s virtually a lock you’re going to win that matchup (unless you’re up against Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten this season).  What a great luxury piece to own, and they’re both so young. I think the thing that impresses me the most about Gronk and Graham is how fast their game translated to the NFL – it’s unparalleled.

If you were to ask most dynasty enthusiasts what position takes the longest to develop, what would the most common answer be?  Probably quarterback.  It’s a common misconception amongst dynasty coaches everywhere.  From what I’ve seen over the better part of a decade, that’s not the case.  The tight end position takes longer than any other to develop and it’s not even close.

Tight ends typically don’t fit into the “norm” as far a player development goes.  For other positions like running back, wide receiver, and in most cases quarterback, player development is usually somewhere in the 2-3 year range.  From what I’ve seen in my time as a dynasty owner I’ve found that tight end development usually takes anywhere from 3-5 years before they reach fantasy relevance, sometimes longer, and in some cases (just like every other position), never.

Which leads me to my next question – what’s the point of ever investing a first round pick on a tight end, even if it’s your greatest team need?  The chances of them being on your roster by the time they are relevant is highly unlikely.  Tight ends are probably the most recycled commodity on the waiver wire. 

Angry Rant: Running Backs are Overrated (and I blame ESPN and Fantasy)

by John Huffstetler

I've ranted against ESPN before in an article that discussed how they were more of an entertainment network than a sports network, and this issue ties directly to that issue of athlete glorification. Running Backs on the pro level simply are not nearly as important as they are perceived. In fact, of all the offensive and defensive positions, one could argue that running back is the least important. The offensive line's ability to block and create space for a back to operate is a dramatically more important factor in creating rushing yards than a back's perceived ability. Granted, there are a handful of players who can make a difference in their teams' success or failure on any given week, but outside of this small list, they are all basically interchangeable.

What evidence is there to support this theory? For starters, there is an obvious growing trend to split carries in the NFL, which shows teams are willing to choose the fresher back over a "better" back in many situations. These teams also do not want one player to gain too many yards, gain to much acclaim, and overestimate their own value (see the MJD and Chris Johnson holdouts). Additionally, Football Outsiders has a great statistic that attempts to measure a RB's value while taking away the yards that the offensive line directly generated for that player. DYAR (Defensive-adjusted yards above replacement) gives "the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage." In this telling statistic, 16 of the 32 starters in the league are either equal to or worse than their backups when combining rushing and receiving totals. These numbers can be found here.